When Will This Pain End?

The major indexes experienced their worst first nine months of the year since 2002, with declines in the Dow Industrials of -18.6%, S&P 500 of 22.5% and NASDAQ Composite of 30.5%. These sizable declines are a result of rising interest rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive monetary policy designed to reverse the highest inflation […]

Inflation’s Pain Cometh

S&P 500 earnings have topped. The Federal Reserve talks tough. Rising energy prices threaten a European depression. Supply-side not monetary solutions are needed.   Following the equity and bond markets’ brutal first half, the S&P 500 index snapped back this summer. With Biden’s releases from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), markets experienced declining oil and […]

Tellurian Shifts Financing Strategy

Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG project financing is imminent. Tellurian’s integrated model is more lucrative than tolling. LNG is a leading transition fuel and critical to Europe. Full Notice To Proceed is as important as FID. If successful, Tellurian could provide exceptional returns. Company Profile and Opportunity Tellurian Inc. (TELL) is an integrated LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) producer. TELL owns, develops, and produces its own natural gas, which comes from the nearby Haynesville Shale, which has some of the cheapest natural gas in the world. TELL is building Driftwood LNG, a liquefaction facility, which converts natural […]

Entering The Next Phase of the Inflationary Bear Market

The market’s decline rests with how severely earnings decline. Massive Federal Reserve Accommodation has led to multiple asset bubbles. Inflation will be tenacious due to energy and supply chain challenges. Today’s inflationary cycle in an investment game changer. Natural gas, LNG, nuclear and precious metals should have decade long rallies.   US stock, bond, and […]

New Inflationary Cycle Investments and Strategies for Secular Bear Markets

Stocks, bonds, and 60/40 had terrible first half. No surprise. The market has potentially 50% more downside, but that is not the worst case. Reflationary investments and the commodity super cycle are in bull markets Energy policy failures create multiple market opportunities. Backward looking strategies are doomed in new inflationary cycle.   The stock market […]

Portfolio Construction in Today’s New Investment Environment.

The investment environment has radically shifted to a commodity driven inflationary super cycle. Inflation has not been this severe in 40 years. Regrettably, commodity shortages, like those in fossil fuels, are not seeing the capital investment required to create new supply and then lower prices. Today’s new investment environment is transforming the rules for investing. […]

Inflation Cycle Risks Secular Bear Markets in Stock, Bonds, and Real Estate

With inflation hitting 40-year highs, interest rates are rising rapidly toward normal historical levels. With accelerating urgency, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, is communicating that it will be rapidly raising rates in the months and quarters ahead. The Fed’s new policy marks an end to a forty-year era of declining interest rates. These […]

Inflation Ends Forty Year Investment Boom

Inflation is wrecking the financial boom which commenced in 1981. Both stocks and bonds have been consistent winners since the 10-year US Treasury yielded 15.6% in October of 1981. This secular decline in interest rates has ended. Today’s accelerating inflation won’t reverse soon, nor will it return to the sub 2% levels targeted by the […]

The Ukraine Invasion Raises Stock Market Risks And Rewards Inflation Portfolio Strateg

Today’s record inflation unequivocally shows that we have entered a new inflation cycle. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation risks will increase further due to new supply chain problems and commodity shortages associated with military engagements. Historically, commodities and the S&P 500 are inversely correlated. With inflation rising, soaring energy and commodity prices should […]

The Market Crack Heard Around the World

The US market uptrend broke this past January and signaled a market top that could lead to a 45% decline in the S&P 500 over the next three years. Market bubbles often trace out similar price patterns due to human nature’s predictable influence on trading. Man, a herd animal, historically succumbs to periods of mass […]

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