
The risk premium today, March 29th, is 6.29%. In March 2000, at the Tech Bubble peak, the risk premium was -2.07%. That month Robert Shiller published Irrational Exuberance which showed that the S&P 500 was the most overvalued since 1929. The future is unknown regarding the future of COVID-19, oil prices and the market; however, there appears to be a contagion of panicked concerns regarding the current state of the economy, markets and COVID-19 that we are in a state of Irrational Pessimism.

“Tyson Halsey of Income Growth Advisors has been managing separately managed accounts made up of master limited partnerships for 15 years. He has weathered the ups and downs of the past two years to boast a 77% one-year return and a 1.7% three-year return, (including a 5% dip in February), in his latest letter to shareholders.”

Stock, bonds and real estate markets could be profoundly hurt by rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is caught in a terrible predicament. It must quickly raise interest rates to stop today’s unanticipated rise in inflation without bursting the stock, bond, and real estate market bubbles. Not since the double-digit inflation in the late 1970s, has the Federal Reserve been so wrong.

“Unfortunately, most people who buy [royalty trusts] don’t realize that they tend to be depleting assets,” says Tyson Halsey of Income Growth Advisors, an investment firm in Charleston, S.C. “They end up being bad for retired people who think they are getting a fixed-income alternative.”

Halsey displays great market foresight in this interview explaining how after 40 years of declines, interest rates are artificially and abnormally low and their rise will hurt both the stock and bond markets. Halsey then recommends commodity cyclical stocks, natural gas stocks, Master Limited Partnerships, steel and gold stocks

Inflation is a serious problem that is getting worse. Last week, the producer price index (PPI) registered 9.6%, the worst level in 40 years. The Federal Reserve sought only “transitory” inflation of 2%, but now it is far exceeding those forecasts. When the monetary policy of the most important financial institution in the world is badly missing anticipated results, things are going awry, and bad things can happen.
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