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Home2022-03-18T14:17:54-05:00

The risk premium today, March 29th, is 6.29%. In March 2000, at the Tech Bubble peak, the risk premium was -2.07%. That month Robert Shiller published Irrational Exuberance which showed that the S&P 500 was the most overvalued since 1929. The future is unknown regarding the future of COVID-19, oil prices and the market; however, there appears to be a contagion of panicked concerns regarding the current state of the economy, markets and COVID-19 that we are in a state of Irrational Pessimism.

Irrational Pessimism 3.31.2022, Halsey calls the bottom., Seeking Alpha

“Tyson Halsey of Income Growth Advisors has been managing separately managed accounts made up of master limited partnerships for 15 years. He has weathered the ups and downs of the past two years to boast a 77% one-year return and a 1.7% three-year return, (including a 5% dip in February), in his latest letter to shareholders.”

Amey Stone, March 2, 2017, Barron's

Stock, bonds and real estate markets could be profoundly hurt by rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve is caught in a terrible predicament. It must quickly raise interest rates to stop today’s unanticipated rise in inflation without bursting the stock, bond, and real estate market bubbles. Not since the double-digit inflation in the late 1970s, has the Federal Reserve been so wrong.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana., January 12th 2022, Daniel Island News

“Unfortunately, most people who buy [royalty trusts] don’t realize that they tend to be depleting assets,” says Tyson Halsey of Income Growth Advisors, an investment firm in Charleston, S.C. “They end up being bad for retired people who think they are getting a fixed-income alternative.”

The Intelligent Investor Column, Jason Zweig, August 24, 2012, Wall Street Journal

Halsey displays great market foresight in this interview explaining how after 40 years of declines, interest rates are artificially and abnormally low and their rise will hurt both the stock and bond markets. Halsey then recommends commodity cyclical stocks, natural gas stocks, Master Limited Partnerships, steel and gold stocks

Are Financial Markets At The Precipice? November 11th, 2021, South Carolina Business Review

Inflation is a serious problem that is getting worse. Last week, the producer price index (PPI) registered 9.6%, the worst level in 40 years. The Federal Reserve sought only “transitory” inflation of 2%, but now it is far exceeding those forecasts. When the monetary policy of the most important financial institution in the world is badly missing anticipated results, things are going awry, and bad things can happen.

How Today’s Spiking Inflation Could Impact You, January 25th 2022, Daniel Island News

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Inflation Cycle Risks Secular Bear Markets in Stock, Bonds, and Real Estate

May 2nd, 2022|

With inflation hitting 40-year highs, interest rates are rising rapidly toward normal historical levels. With accelerating urgency, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, is communicating that it will be rapidly raising rates

The Ukraine Invasion Raises Stock Market Risks And Rewards Inflation Portfolio Strategy

February 28th, 2022|

Today’s record inflation unequivocally shows that we have entered a new inflation cycle. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation risks will increase further due to new supply chain problems and commodity shortages

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