A Rare Opportunity for Retirement Income Portfolios

The Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 initiated a period of artificially low interest rates created by an overly accommodative Federal Reserve. This post-GFC period of abnormally low interest rates created historically rich valuations for stocks, bonds, and real estate and overextended four-decade-long bull markets fueled by declining interest rates. This prolonged period of declining interest […]

This Decade Is Different – Low Rates Are Gone and Commodities Are Coming Back

US markets are digesting the unwinding of three massive bubbles in stocks, bonds, and real estate. These asset classes have enjoyed consistently high returns due to four decades of declining interest rates, shrinking inflation, a technology revolution, and relative world peace. Today, those tailwinds are disappearing. Artificially low interest rates are being unwound and will […]

SVB’s Collapse Strengthens Gold’s Prospects

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has quickly uncovered a systemic banking vulnerability that will diminish the return prospects of both the stock and the bond markets. The collapse of SVB started on Wednesday, March 8th, when the company announced, it was looking to raise more than $2 billion in additional capital after suffering […]

Is the Federal Reserve Wrong Again in Believing Inflation is Transitory?

Between October 13 and February 2, the stock market enjoyed a healthy rebound on the optimistic market outlook that the Federal Reserve’s rapid 2022 tightening would bring lower inflation, a mild recession; and then the Federal Reserve would reverse directions and ease the Fed Fund rate leading to a continuation of the bull market as […]

Improving Investment Strategy with Cycle and Sector Timing

The current market environment is unpredictable. A few months ago, most economists were forecasting a recession in 2023, but in recent months persistent consumer spending, strong employment, and solid GDP data suggest a recession is increasingly less probable. Furthermore, the Ukrainian resistance is making Russia’s invasion look increasingly like a failure which could lead to […]

A Brief History of Market Cycles – IGA’s 2023 Investment Strategy

“Patterns repeat, because human nature hasn’t changed for thousands of years” said legendary trader Jesse Lauriston Livermore. We believe that today, Wall Street, broadly speaking, is wrong. Over the last 40 years, trillions have been successfully invested based on exhaustive research around valuations and economic forecasts. Today, with the end of a 40-year tailwind of […]

Safe Havens for a Volatile 2023: Precious Metals, High Yielding Equities, and Cash

The prospects for stocks and bonds in 2023 are not great. Consequently, we are overweighting safe- haven investments like precious metals, high yielding stocks, and money markets. We expect stocks to register earnings declines as the economy slows. How deep the economic slowdown will depend on the Fed and geopolitical risks like China invading Taiwan. […]

A Soft Landing is Possible, but Not Probable

We have been bearish on stocks, bonds, and real estate for two years, but see a glimmer of hope that a meaningful economic recession and sharp earnings decline are not forgone conclusions. Whether or not inflation remains tenaciously high or reverts toward 2% remains to be seen. Our fear is that inflation will remain intractable […]

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